Relevance up to 03:00 2022-06-15 UTC–4
Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair
EUR/USD reaching 1.0471 led to a sell signal in the market, however, having the MACD line far from zero limited the downside potential of the pair. Some time later, the pair tested the level again, but this time the signal that emerged was to buy. That, however, also did not lead to sharp upward movements. It was the third test that was successful as the MACD line had moved under zero by that time, prompting a 25-pip decrease in the pair. No other signal appeared for the rest of the day.
Lack of statistics on the euro area and expectations of an aggressive policy from the Fed tomorrow keeps pressure on risky assets. But today, EUR/USD may move higher, as there are a number of statistics scheduled to be released in the EU. Upcoming are the latest CPI and consumer sentiment report from the ZEW institute for Germany, followed by data on industrial production and economic sentiment in the eurozone. Good figures may lead to an increase in the pair. In the afternoon, the US will publish a report on producer prices, which is likely to surpass economists’ forecasts and show another monthly and yearly growth. That will remind traders and the Fed of the need for further tight monetary policy.
For long positions:
Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0463 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0516 (thicker green line on the chart). There is a chance for a rally today, but only after strong statistics on the eurozone. Nevertheless, note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.0421, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0463 and 1.0516.
For short positions:
Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0421 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0368. Pressure will continue after an unsuccessful attempt to rise above 1.0463 and weak data on the Euro area. However, note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0463, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0421 and 1.0368.
What’s on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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