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Bitcoin recovers above $20k, but the fall will continue

Relevance up to 04:00 2022-06-23 UTC–4

Bitcoin starts a new trading day with an attack by sellers with the ultimate target of breaking $20k. Buyers manage to repel the attack, and the price stops around $20,250. The bears failed to implement their plan, but an important support zone was revealed. The market continues to stabilize after another sell-off and consolidates above $20k. The level of volatility and the volume of short positions are also decreasing.

An important on-chain indicator NUPL, which shows the ratio of unprofitable and profitable coins in circulation, crossed the zero mark on June 19, which is commensurate with panic and capitulation moods. It was at this moment that the share of profitable BTC coins decreased to 49%. Subsequently, the price rebounded and the indicator recovered to acceptable positions. The main reason for the recovery movement of Bitcoin was the mining companies that were the main suppliers of BTC coins to the exchanges.

Cryptocurrency mining companies sold more than 10k BTC weekly, which directly affected the price drop to the round $20k mark. After the panic on June 19, miners stopped selling their Bitcoin reserves. This stabilized the situation and, according to JPMorgan experts, allowed the price to consolidate above $20k again.

On-chain metrics also confirm the positive attitude of the miners. For the first time since April 22, cryptocurrency mining companies began to accumulate BTC volumes. Taking into account the balances of the miners, the decrease in the level of sales had a positive effect on the Bitcoin quotes, and allowed the coin to stop the fall.

However, there is every reason to believe that soon the position of the miners will begin to change again. Companies follow the market situation and try to adapt. The bear market has significantly reduced the usual volume of income for miners, and the energy crisis provoked by the war in Ukraine has reduced the total income of mining companies to the level of 39% of the initial volumes. It was these factors that provoked miners to partially sell their volumes.

And judging by the deteriorating situation, this sale may resume. The negative news comes from Iran, where the government is cutting off power to more than a thousand licensed miners. This is a significant and extremely negative event for the cryptocurrency mining market, which may force companies to sell BTC to compensate for losses.

There were reports that the mining company Bitfarms sold 3000 BTC due to lack of liquidity. Representatives of the Canadian giant also noted that for miners, selling BTC is the fastest and easiest way to get the necessary liquidity. At the same time, Bitfarms is on the verge of survival, and the company’s securities fell to $1.83 from $4.27.

Other cryptocurrency mining firms are also suffering losses and getting cheaper, so there is no doubt that we saw only the first stage of the BTC sell-off, provoked by an impulsive downward spurt. The main problem for the entire industry is a combination of two factors: while BTC is getting cheaper and revenues are declining, the energy crisis in the world continues to worsen and prices continue to rise.

Thus, miners can be attributed to the key factors that can exacerbate the pressure on BTC. As for the current state of Bitcoin, positive signals appeared on the four-hour timeframe. The price held the $20k level, and thus kept the chances for the bulls to complete the formation of an upward inverted head and shoulders pattern. To start realizing the pattern’s potential, the price needs to reach $22k to break through the shoulder level. Technical indicators point to buying weakness and growing selling pressure. This suggests that on June 22, the price will have a battle overseas at $22k.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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