Relevance up to 04:00 2022-06-21 UTC–4
The gold market ended last week with a loss of 2%; however, many investors see it as a win against the most aggressive Federal Reserve in nearly 30 years.
With inflation reaching a new 40-year high last month, the US central bank had no choice but to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. It also hinted at further aggressive action, with interest rates potentially rising to 3.5% by the end of this year and reaching 4.00% in 2023.
Most likely, another 75 bp increase will happen next month as inflation remains the biggest threat to the US economy.
Despite this hawkish sentiment, gold prices ended the week just below $1,850 an ounce, a critical psychological level. This is much better than the stock market, which lost 5%. Also, this year, gold prices remain relatively unchanged, while the broad stock market index is down nearly 23%.
High volatility is one of the reasons why gold managed to hold its positions, regardless of the aggressive tightening of the Fed’s monetary policy. Inflation continues to rise and the central bank’s hawkish stance raises the risk that the economy will slip into recession.
George Milling-Stanley, chief strategist at State Street Global Advisors, said gold has nothing to fear from the Fed, noting that the optimal level of gold in a portfolio is around 10%, but in turbulent times it can double.
Similarly, analysts at Societe Generale said gold could rise above $2,000 an ounce in the third quarter.
The dispute on which is better between gold and bitcoin has also been settled as Bitcoin fell below $20,000. Since the beginning of the year, its price has fallen by 59%. Some analysts expect digital currencies to fall further as rising interest rates reduce market liquidity.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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