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In fact, yesterday the single European currency described an almost perfect arc. First falling, and then returning to the values of the beginning of trading. And such a scenario was quite expected, given the forecasts for preliminary estimates of business activity indices. But the data came out completely different from what was expected. For example, in the UK they turned out to be noticeably better than forecasts. The only exception was the business activity index, in the manufacturing sector it was supposed to decrease from 54.6 points to 54.2 points, but in fact it fell to 53.4 points. The index of business activity in the services sector remained unchanged, although it was expected to decline from 53.4 points to 52.8 points. As a result, the composite index of business activity, instead of falling from 53.1 points to 52.3 points, also remained unchanged.
Composite PMI (UK):
But the data came out much worse than forecasts in the United States. For example, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector should have decreased from 57.0 points to 56.0 points, but instead fell to 52.4 points. The index of business activity in the service sector fell from 53.4 points to 51.6 points, while the forecast was 53.0 points. So the composite index of business activity decreased from 53.6 points to 51.2 points. While it was expected to decline to 52.8 points.
Composite PMI (United States):
Today, the pound should have continued to grow due to data on retail sales, the rate of decline of which should have slowed down from -4.9% to -4.1%. However, previous data were revised down to -5.7%. And the rate of decline, of course, slowed down, but only to -4.7%. The result was much worse than expected, and the pound immediately began to lose ground. But I’m not so sure. After all, we are still talking about slowing down the decline. And the current value is somewhat better than the previous one, which was before the revision of the data.
Retail Sales (UK):
Based on this, most likely, the market will consolidate and gradually go into a sideways movement, without a pronounced movement in one direction or another. Moreover, the macroeconomic calendar is then completely empty.
The GBPUSD currency pair has been moving within a wide range of 1.2150/1.2320 for a week now. This price fluctuation indicates a slowdown in the corrective move from the 1.2000 psychological level area, while at the same time signaling a characteristic uncertainty among traders.
The technical instrument RSI in periods H1 and H4 is in the upper area of the indicator 50/70, which corresponds to the movement of the quote within the upper limit of the set range.
The Alligator H1 and H4 indicator has many intersections between the MA moving lines, which indicates a flat. Alligator D1 is in a downtrend cycle, MA moving lines are pointing down.
Expectations and prospects:
The price movement within the flat is still relevant in the market, so another price rebound from its upper border cannot be ruled out. As the main strategy, traders consider the tactics of breaking through one or another frame of the established range.
Complex indicator analysis has a variable signal in the short-term and intraday periods. At this time, the indicators point to an upward move. In the medium term, the indicators are focused on a downward trend, this is a sell signal.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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