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Analysis of Wednesday’s deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD currency pair traded absolutely illogically on Wednesday at first glance. At a second glance, it is quite logical, since at the beginning of the day the price tried to correct for the second time, and in the afternoon it began to work out the still pending decisions of the Federal Reserve again. Recall that prior to this week, the market was confident that the US central bank would raise rates by at least 0.5%. And since this Monday, the probability of seeing a bigger hike has increased. We are about to find out what decision the Fed made, but the market, judging by the last few days, is confident that the hawkish rhetoric will be tightened. That is why the US dollar has been rising all this time. As for today’s macroeconomic statistics, there is not much to talk about. In the morning, the European Union published a report on industrial production, which turned out to be slightly worse than forecasts. That is, formally, the euro could fall after this report, but obviously not by 100 points. In general, the movement was very strange from a technical point of view, and it was quite difficult to work it out. But volatility was high.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The technical picture looks even worse on the 5-minute timeframe. The pair continues to ignore important levels, and it is completely unclear whether it is reacting to macroeconomic statistics or just “pretends”. One way or another, but today it was necessary to trade in more difficult conditions than usual. Of course, the tension caused by the evening announcement of the results of the Fed meeting had an effect. The market was nervous, the pair often changed direction. The first three signals were the pinnacle of inaccuracy. Formally, the price initially overcame the level of 1.0465, then bounced off it twice from above, but it was quite difficult to identify such buy signals. And even if novice traders worked them out, they still did not make a profit, since the price went up only 30 points. But at least we managed to set Stop Loss to breakeven. The next sell signal was already much better – the pair overcame the level of 1.0465, after which it dropped to the level of 1.0400 and overcame it. As a result, the short position should have been closed before the announcement of the results of the Fed meeting. And on it the profit was about 60 points. As a result, the day turned out to be difficult, but successful.
How to trade on Thursday:
The pair maintains a downward trend on the 30-minute timeframe, but there is no trend line or channel. And where the pair will be in a few hours or tomorrow morning, now it is generally unrealistic to assume. Thus, we wait for the results, drink tea and analyze all the information and movements Thursday afternoon, not earlier. On the 5-minute TF, it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.0354, 1.0400, 1.0465, 1.0532, 1.0564. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. No important events planned in the European Union and America. However, this does not mean that the pair will stay in one place or will not show a trend movement. On the contrary, the market may continue to work out the information that it will receive tonight from the US central bank and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell personally. Therefore, we expect another very volatile day.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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