Relevance up to 03:00 2022-06-27 UTC–4
Analysis of Friday’s deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD currency pair showed a typical flat on Friday. We even removed the 1.0532 level from the charts, as it was neatly centered on the area where the pair had spent the last week. Thus, the technical picture remains the same. A period of consolidation, which absolutely does not contribute to the strengthening of the European currency. Recall that not so long ago, euro quotes were already approaching 20-year lows. This was followed by an upward rollback of 300-400 points and that was it. The euro, as before, can count on a continuation of the technical correction, but how much can it gain on this correction? Another 100-200-300 points? And then what if there are simply no weighty factors in its favor? On Friday, there was absolutely nothing interesting in the macroeconomic terms in the European Union. On the other hand, a report on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan was released in America, which, even with very poor forecasts, managed to turn out to be even weaker. However, the market was not at all interested in these figures, which is not surprising. More important events were ignored this week as well.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The technical picture also looks very sad on the 5-minute timeframe. On Friday, there were several short periods when there were bursts of emotions, but they only spoiled the overall technical picture even more. There was a classic flat the entire day, and the price formed all its signals around one level (1.0532), which is also a sign of a flat. Naturally, it was not possible to make money in the flat, and the main task of novice traders was to avoid false signals and minimize losses. In principle, everything became clear from the first two signals. First, the price settled below the level of 1.0532, then higher. In the first case, 7 points were passed in the right direction, in the second – 15. Thus, a loss was received on the first transaction, and Stop Loss was triggered at breakeven on the second one. All subsequent signals near the same level of 1.0532 should have been ignored. As a result, the day ended with a slight loss, which is not surprising, given the nature of the pair’s movement.
How to trade on Monday:
The movement remains absolutely incomprehensible on the 30-minute timeframe. There is a slight upward slope, but the pair is constantly changing the strength of movement and direction. Thus, we characterize such a movement as a “swing”. Novice traders should be aware of this nature of the movement and not take unnecessary risks. On the 5-minute TF on Monday, it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.0400, 1.0465, 1.0483, 1.0582, 1.0607, 1.0636. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech in the European Union. Theoretically, she could tighten her rhetoric, which could cause stronger demand for the euro. But we don’t expect anything like that. Moreover, her speech is scheduled for the late evening. Meanwhile, the US will release a report on orders for durable goods. This report was once very important, but in the last year is usually ignored by the market. Perhaps tomorrow we will see the continuation of the “swing” with not too high volatility.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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