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Analysis of Tuesday’s deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD currency pair showed exactly the movement that we expected to see on Tuesday. In the first half of the day, the pair continued to fall to the lower border of the horizontal channel at 1.0636-1.0749, but then it began to grow in the afternoon. In fact, this growth does not really matter. At this time, if not a classic flat, then a movement very similar in nature has formed. Thus, in the next few hours, the euro’s decline can be brought back absolutely easily and simply. Moreover, the euro’s growth in the US session was not provoked by important macroeconomic statistics or “foundation”. So for now, we state the following conclusion: the price is in a horizontal channel, and this is always dangerous for traders, especially for beginners. Usually the channels have clear boundaries, but in our case, the boundaries of the horizontal channel do not really matter, the pair can work them out rather inaccurately. No important event or report during the day, but, as we can see, the pair did not stand in one place.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The technical picture on the 5-minute timeframe looks pretty bad all because of the same horizontal channel and the movement inside it. If in the morning the signals were at least more or less digestible, then in the afternoon, blatantly false signals began to form. Well, we warned about a possible flat, and false signals are often formed in a flat. Nevertheless, the first signal to buy near the level of 1.0663 could have been worked out with a long position. The price rose to the level of 1.0697 and rebounded from it, forming a sell signal, after which it again dropped to the level of 1.0663 and even overcame it. Therefore, a short position should have been closed after the price settles above the level of 1.0663. As a result, it was possible to make a profit of 30 points on the first two trades. Further, on a signal to buy near the level of 1.0663, longs should have been reopened, which closed again near the level of 1.0697 – another 15 points of profit. But the sell signal turned out to be false and the pair failed to go down 15 points, so the deal closed at a loss when the price settled above the level of 1.0697. The last buy signal should not have been worked out, since it was formed too late.
How to trade on Wednesday:
The pair continues to trade inside the horizontal channel on the 30-minute timeframe, so the technical picture has not changed over the past day. As long as the price is between the levels of 1.0636 and 1.0749, there is no need to count on a trend movement. Plus, the news calendar is now empty, so traders have nothing to react to. On the 5-minute TF, it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.0607, 1.0636, 1.0663, 1.0697, 1.0749, 1.0787-1.0806, 1.0837. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. The EU will release a report on GDP for the first quarter in the third assessment. It is unlikely that the third estimate will be very different from the second or the first, so the market reaction to this report is also unlikely to follow. And nothing interesting is planned in America. Therefore, we can assume that the day will again be empty in macroeconomic terms.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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