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Analysis of Thursday’s deals:
30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair also traded rather volatile and in different directions on Thursday. Moreover, the pound did not have sufficient grounds for this. If the results of the European Central Bank meeting were just announced in the European Union, which is always important, and later ECB President Christine Lagarde had a press conference, then in the UK, there was nothing interesting. Thus, it is a mystery why the British pound showed similar movements. However, the pound also consolidated below the rising trend line a day earlier, so the upward trend has been reversed here as well. And this is also a moment that raises questions. Recall that the euro and the pound have been demonstrating some fantastic level of correlation with each other in recent months, although the fundamental and macroeconomic backgrounds for the two pairs often differ. Since the British pound failed to overcome the important level of 1.2033 with three attempts (as well as the euro/dollar pair!!!), its further growth prospects also remain very vague. We are inclined to believe that the euro and the pound will resume their decline in the near future. The calendar of macroeconomic events was also empty in the US, except for the ordinary report on applications for unemployment benefits.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The movement and signals on the 5-minute timeframe were also quite attractive on Thursday. But not everything is so clear. The first sell signal was formed near the level of 1.1967 and after it was formed the price went down 33 points. This was enough to place a Stop Loss order at breakeven, at which the deal was closed, since the target level of 1.1898 was not reached. Then another sell signal formed near the same level, also false, and also closed at Stop Loss at breakeven. Since by the time the signal to buy was formed near the level of 1.1898, two false signals had already formed, all subsequent ones should not have been worked out. Thus, novice players could open a deal only on a buy signal near the level of 1.1898, which allowed them to make good money in the end. The price went up about 60 points after this signal was formed and reached the level of 1.1967. Profit on this transaction amounted to about 40 points.
How to trade on Friday:
The pair has already managed to cancel the upward trend on the 30-minute timeframe and can now resume a long-term downward trend, which is best seen on higher timeframes. This week, bulls on the British pound have shown that they are not ready for serious long positions, so the pair could likely fall. On the 5-minute TF on Friday it is recommended to trade at the levels 1.1807-1.1827, 1.1898, 1.1967, 1.2033, 1.2106, 1.2170. When the price passes after opening a deal in the right direction for 20 points, Stop Loss should be set to breakeven. Indexes of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors for July and retail sales will be released in the UK. America only has the indexes of business activity. The reaction to these reports can follow only if their values will be very different from the forecast.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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