Relevance up to 07:00 2022-06-13 UTC–4
Analysis of Friday’s deals:
30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair also continued its downward movement on Friday. The difference with the euro/dollar is only that the euro currency has fallen very much on Thursday, while the pound lost the minimum number of points on Thursday. However, the meaning of what is happening does not change. Both European currencies are again falling against the dollar, although, for example, the European Central Bank meeting has nothing to do with the pound. However, the pound is now falling for the company. On Friday, its fall began long before the US inflation report was published. In our fundamental articles, we regularly analyze all the most significant factors in the pairs’ movement, and the last time we said that in the long term, both pairs showed only a small technical correction to the upside. Therefore, in the context of the 24-hour timeframe, the downward trend did not even stop. And if so, then it can safely continue. Most of the factors continue to be on the side of the US currency. There was hope that the euro and the pound had already fallen in price quite strongly, and the market had already worked out all the factors that led to the dollar’s growth, but, as we see, this is not the case.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The pound’s movement on the 5-minute timeframe looks even better than on the euro. The pair was moving down without a recoil for almost the entire day, so there was not a single reason even to close short positions. There were few trading signals and all, except for the first one, were for short positions. It was the first false buy signal that slightly spoiled the overall picture of the situation, as it brought novice traders a small loss. But the second signal to sell, when the price overcame the area of 1.2471-1.2477, brought at least 140 points of profit, which more than covered the loss of the first transaction and left newcomers in a very solid positive. On the way down, the pair broke through the levels of 1.2371, 1.2337 and 1.2329. The deal should have been closed manually only in the evening, since there was simply no signal to close it.
How to trade on Monday:
The “swing” is completed on the 30-minute timeframe, the flat is completed, and the pair left the horizontal channel of 1.2477-1.2597. Thus, a new downward trend is now forming, but there is no trend line yet, as the price left the horizontal channel only on Friday. However, the pound may now start a new long stretch of decline against the US currency. The market has once again shown in the last few weeks that it is not ready for strong longs on the British currency, at most – for a correction. On the 5-minute TF on Monday, it is recommended to trade at the levels 1.2164, 1.2216, 1.2260, 1.2296, 1.2329-1.2337, 1.2371, 1.2471-1.2477. When the price passes after opening a deal in the right direction for 20 points, Stop Loss should be set to breakeven. There are no major events planned in the UK and America. Novice traders had nothing to react to during the day. So it is a good time for an upward correction. If the pair continues to fall tomorrow, then, most likely, this will be a signal that the market is ready to sell the pound for a long time and significantly.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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