Relevance up to 06:00 2022-06-27 UTC–4
Analysis of Friday’s deals:
30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair was also trading in absolute flat on Friday. This is perfectly visible on any timeframe. If the euro was still at least trying to show at least some intraday trend, then the pound did not even try. Although in theory it should have been the other way around. After all, the UK released a report in the morning, which can be considered a report of medium significance. Retail sales in May turned out to be worse than expected, but the market not only did not start selling the pound, it did not react at all. Thus, the pair was trading between the level of 1.2329 for the entirety of the week and approximately at 1.2170. Consequently, the “consolidation period” is also preserved for the pound, that is, the flat. We do not know how long it will last. There were formal reasons for the pair not to stand in one place this week. Nevertheless, at least Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered two speeches. There will also be macroeconomic and fundamental events next week, but now everything depends on the mood of the market. If it does not intend to trade, then we will not see any movements with any statistics and foundation.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
Trading signals on the 5-minute timeframe again left much to be desired. Unfortunately, even a relatively large number of levels in the above range does not at all lead to forming strong signals. Even if the levels are changed every day, the situation will not improve. Consequently, we continue to warn novice traders it is not the best time to trade in a flat. This week there were profitable trades, but there were also losing trades. In the end, everyone decides for himself how to act in a flat. The pair initially settled below the level of 1.2260 on Friday, but failed to move even 20 points in the right direction. Therefore, the short position was closed at a small loss. Then a buy signal was formed when the price went back above the level of 1.2260. Here, things were already a little better, since the price managed to go up 30 points, which was enough at least to set the Stop Loss level to breakeven. However, the pair still did not reach the nearest target level of 1.2329. Consequently, the Stop Loss deal was closed. As a result, we get exactly the same picture as for the euro: two transactions, one of them is unprofitable, the second is breakeven. All subsequent signals were to be ignored.
How to trade on Monday:
The upward trend formally remains on the 30-minute timeframe, but the pair has been moving only sideways for the last five days. Therefore, it is very inconvenient to trade the pair at the moment, to put it mildly. We advise beginners to trade carefully and cautiously in the near future, because the chaotic movement may take longer than expected. On the 5-minute TF on Monday, it is recommended to trade at the levels 1.2106, 1.2170, 1.2216, 1.2260, 1.2329-1.2337, 1.2371, 1.2471-1.2477. When the price passes after opening a deal in the right direction for 20 points, Stop Loss should be set to breakeven. There are no major events scheduled for Monday in the UK, and a report on durable goods orders will be released in the US, which is not important in the current circumstances.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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