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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for June 24, 2022

Relevance up to 03:00 2022-06-25 UTC–4

Crypto Industry News:

Although stages of panic appear cyclically in the world of cryptocurrencies, we have not seen such disastrous moods in the global markets for at least over a decade. What does this mean for Bitcoin? Are the nearly 12-year increases at risk today?

I will try to present arguments in favor of Bitcoin and key cryptocurrencies remaining afloat, and point to the risks that may cause further sell-offs or, at worst, a record-breaking bad market sentiment.

What speaks for Bitcoin’s recovery?

-The price of Bitcoin in the past has recovered fairly quickly after breaking below the 200-day moving average of 200MA that we saw last Saturday;

-The blockchain technology behind Bitcoin is of interest to the world’s largest financial institutions, such as BlackRock, JP Morgan, and companies such as Microsoft or KPMG, which use it to optimize transaction processes and approve payments;

-In time, access to the Internet will also be granted to the inhabitants of the currently poorer regions of the Earth enjoying positive natural growth (Africa, South America), thanks to which by 2030 the number of Internet users may even double. Potentially, with the continued ‘presence’ of Bitcoin, it will create an additional group supporting the development and adoption of digital assets;

-Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are important tools for financial institutions to achieve record rates of return. Thanks to the “emotionality of the market”, it is a place susceptible to manipulation, and the lack of regulation creates opportunities to raise capital with minimal accounting and costs;

-The amount of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million tokens, which, with the growing demand, can also support the price increase. Nearly 19 million are already in circulation, the next halving could make Bitcoin’s price gain in the environment of shrinking supply;

-The development of the industry involves companies from the FinTech industry supported by Wall Street, such as Block or Circle;

-Regulators and influential people in the world of finance, incl. The US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the head of the FED Jerome Powell, CEO of the Black Rock fund (nearly USD 10 trillion in management) Larry Fink or even the US president, Joe Biden, never signaled the end of the cryptocurrency era, at most they spoke about the need to regulate the industry and protect capital of retail investors;

-The creation by ProShares of an ETF that shifts the Bitcoin price by contrarian investors may be perceived as a signal of the ending downward trend, just as the creation of the fund at a price of $ 65,000 turned out to take place almost ‘at the height of the bull market’

Bitcoin is certainly facing a huge challenge posed by further perturbations in the global economy, supported by almost all possible economic data readings, including a slowdown in GDP growth in the US. The key analysis of price behavior revolves around the behavior of investors and institutions.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $21,695 before the bounce was capped by the Pin Bar candlestick pattern and the volatility on the lower time-frames has started. The bulls are bounced from the extremely oversold market conditions, so the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $23,287, however, the short-term trend line resistance had capped the bounce once again around the level of $21,136. Any failure to hit and/or break above this level will likely result in another wave down towards the recent lows. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $19,789. The larger time frame outlook for Bitcoin remains bearish, however, we have unconfirmed Bullish Engulfing pattern on the Daily time frame chart, so please stay focused and keep an eye on the key technical levels.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 – $35,385

WR2 – $31,310

WR1 – $25,552

Weekly Pivot – $21,486

WS1 – $15,559

WS2 – $11,561

WS3 – $5,781

Trading Outlook:

The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames continues. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Bitcoin for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The key long term technical support at the round psychological level of $20,000 had been violated, the new swing low was made at $17,600 and if this level is violated, then the next long-term target for bulls is seen at $13,712.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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