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The Fed – main catalyst for the fall of bitcoin.

Relevance up to 09:00 2022-06-13 UTC–4

On the 4-hour TF, the current picture for bitcoin looks even more eloquent than on the 24-hour one. There is a clear descending channel that has been holding the course inside for more than 2.5 months. During this time, bitcoin has only approached the upper limit of the channel several times but has not made a single attempt to overcome it. Thus, we have a pronounced downward trend. As we have already said, the last month has passed in a frank flat, which is even somehow unusual for bitcoin. However, it is. In the last couple of days, the decline has resumed, so we believe that next week the cryptocurrency may fall to the level of $ 24,350. If this level does not stop the fall, then the rate will be taken at $ 10,000 per coin. Recall that any downward trend does not mean that the cryptocurrency should collapse to target levels in a couple of weeks. The last 4 weeks have shown why. The downward trend persisted all this time, but the cryptocurrency, by and large, stood in one place. Thus, bitcoin can go up to the $ 10,000 mark for six months or a year.

Meanwhile, the fundamental background for bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market remains unfavorable. We are no longer even considering such news as new messages from Elon Musk or Cathie Wood. We have almost forgotten who Michael Saylor is, who bought bitcoin with all the free and borrowed money of Microstrategy bitcoins. It is difficult to recall Cathie Wood, who is also one of the proponents of the theory of the “golden future of cryptocurrencies”. Maybe in 10 or 20 years cryptocurrencies will rule the financial system, but now it is nothing more than an investment instrument with huge volatility. Can anyone imagine a company’s (any) stock falling to $ 0 or 90%? Of course, this is possible, but for this to happen, such a force majeure situation must occur, which happens once in decades. A vivid example of this is the sanctions against Russia and Russian companies imposed by the European Union, which brought down the shares of companies almost to zero on European platforms. If everything is relatively normal (in fundamental terms), then such a fall is almost impossible. For stocks. And for bitcoin, everything is stable now in fundamental terms, let’s put it this way. Frankly, there is no bad news, but the cryptocurrency may well collapse by 90%, as it has been several times. None of the major countries of the world have banned cryptocurrencies recently, no tough decisions have been made regarding bitcoin. There is only the Fed, which will raise rates and which will reduce the US money supply. This process is destructive for the “bitcoin”, since it grew perfectly well while rates were “ultra-low”, and the Fed poured $ 120 billion into the economy every month.

On the 4-hour timeframe, the quotes of the “bitcoin” fell below the level of $ 29,750. It was not possible to gain a foothold above the descending channel for a whole month, so now the target remains at the level of $ 24,350. It is not recommended to consider buying bitcoin now, in principle, you need to wait for at least a consolidation above the channel.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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