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USD/JPY dips sharply, S2 (133.52) acts as support

Relevance up to 00:00 2022-07-30 UTC–4

The USD/JPY pair plunged as expected. Now, it has reached a new low of 133.44. Technically, the quotes turned to the downside as the US dollar index dropped while the yen rallied. It was trading at 133.52 at the time of writing. It could approach new lows anytime.

Fundamentally, USD took a hit from the US Advance GDP which reported a -0.9% drop compared to a 0.4% growth expected. Today, the Japanese economic data is mixed. The Retail Sales indicator reported a 1.5% growth versus the forecast figure of 2.8%, the Prelim Industrial Production surged by 8.9% versus 4.3%. The unemployment rate remained steady at 2.6% even if traders expected a potential drop to 2.5%. The Tokyo Core CPI rose by 2.3% exceeding the 2.2% growth forecasted.

Later, the Housing Starts and the Consumer Confidence indicators will be released as well. USD could be saved only by better than expected US figures. Core PCE Price Index, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Personal Spending, Personal Income, and the Chicago PMI could change the sentiment.

USD/JPY Massive Sell-Off

As you can see on the H1 chart, USD/JPY dropped after retesting 135.56. I told you in yesterday’s analysis that the pair could extend its sell-off as long as it stays under this level and after sliding below 135.23.

Now, it has stabilized below the descending pitchfork’s median line (ml) which represented a downside obstacle. It has ignored the weekly S2 (133.52) signaling a further drop.

USD/JPY Outlook

Failing to stay above the median line (ml) and dropping below the 134.19 level signaled more declines. This was seen as a short opportunity. Now, personally, I’ll wait for the price to rebound before trying to go short again. It could come back to test and retest the S2 (133.52) or the median line (ml) before dropping deeper.

A rebound could bring new selling opportunities with a potential downside target at the lower median line (lml). The bias remains bearish as long as it stays under the median line (ml).

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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